Who can you trust?

I recently received a letter from Kerry HQ telling me how Kerry has a lead in all battleground states. I find myself angry and upset. How can this claim be made, how can this be true when the news reports that the Kerry campaign has just decided to withdraw ads from Arizona and 3 other battleground states because there's no hope. How when all the major polls show Bush winning the electoral college in these states, and overall. What about the Kerry campaign responding to questions raised in the Rove interview a couple days ago, where he makes the case that the race is over? Why are they not responding to those things that, were I even to care what they are saying, I would as an interested voter know about? I asked my buddy Paul Bunyan about it, and he said:

This (Kerry campaign) letter is more or less consistent with what I know. This has been a very bizarre campaign in terms of polls. For example, on the same day a week or so ago that big headlines came out all over on the 11-point gallup lead holding steady, the Pew Trusts poll--which also had shown a Bush lead before--had the lead narrowed to zero or one. Never have I witnessed such disparities among the polling concerns. And why would they even lie? Isn't that dangerous, as maybe motivating the opposition? But no, Karl Rove is always right. The advantage of demoralization is much greater than the risk of mobilization. 10 or 20 or 50 years from now, we will look back and it will be an accepted wisdom that the media is conservative-biased, just as it is a quaint remnant assumption that it is now liberal. The Zogby thing refers to "the internals" in polling and has to do with the usual dem/repub non-voter factor--basically if everybody who is eligible to vote voted, no republican would ever hold a single office anywhere in the land, so it's all turnout. And there apparently is some data showing that there might be a high Dem turnout in this election because of Bush Hatred if not Kerry Love, and that therefore some of the people judged as non-likely voters might in fact vote more than thought. And that in turn refers to the fact that these big bush leads that are trumpeted in headlines are ALL based on likely voters. The all-registered-voters polls show a close race, and the all-elligible-to-vote-people polls (if they even exist) probably show a Kerry lead. But we can't criticize Kerry for not responding to poll-based attacks, I don't think. Though there is much else to crtiticize. I have more half-done, and blog -ready in pipline on that, but really busy with (unpaid) work right now. You Must Read Stanley FIsh's op-ed in nytimes of today. --Paul Bunyan


KERRY CAMPAIGN LETTER I GOT TODAY

Dear Uncle Sam,

Please make a contribution to the Democratic Party before the 9/30 deadline.There can be no doubt: the momentum is on our side.George W. Bush's post-convention bounce has evaporated. Five new national polls this week show the race tied, with the difference within the margin of error in every single one of the polls. Three of the polls have the race within one point or less.And if you think the national polls are looking good, the story in the battleground states is even better. Recent battleground polls from Zogby and American Research Group show John Kerry winning enough electoral votes to take back the White House. Kerry is leading among independents and swing voters. And the majority of Americans know that George W. Bush is moving America in the wrong direction.Now let's be clear about what this means -- good news in the polls isn't enough to win this election. Now that their lead has evaporated, the Bush-Cheney team and the Republicans are going to kick their smear machine into high gear. You're going to see attacks in the next few weeks like nothing you have ever seen before. This is the moment where every last dollar counts -- it does not get any more urgent than the Democratic Party's September 30 deadline.This is our moment. We have the strength. I urge you to stand with us today by making a donation to the Democratic Party.https://www.democrats.org/support/kerry.htmlThank you for all that you do,Mary Beth CahillCampaign ManagerKerry-Edwards 2004